Date: 24.03.2020EXPIRED:III. How should consensus estimates that only partially take into account the effects of the coronavirus outbreak be assessed given the current impact of the virus? How can market expectations be determined appropriately in such cases?
BaFin determines market expectations based on the mean value (arithmetical mean) of current analyst estimates (“consensus estimates”) at the time the inside information emerges. In BaFin’s view, adjustments for any outliers are, as a rule, not permissible. In this context, BaFin would like to point out that the specific circumstances of the individual case must be taken into account when determining whether information has the potential to have a significant effect on share prices. As it may be difficult in some cases to determine the mean value – e.g. because there are not enough available estimates – determining market expectations in a different manner on the basis of plausible information is permissible.
Given the current impact of the coronavirus crisis, BaFin considers, on an exceptional basis, that, in individual cases, it may be justifiable to adjust an existing consensus estimate in an appropriate and objectively transparent manner, e.g. on the basis of current press reports, if the consensus estimate refers to estimates that are clearly no longer up-to-date and that do not take into account the current situation.
